St Kilda have been informed that Battle has put off a decision on his future until the end of this season, and while many in the industry still think he will stick with the Saints, that he has left the decision still open to this point is a measure of some indecision or genuine contemplation of leaving.
If the St Kilda offer exceeds $800,000 per season, and has a term of six years, Hawthorn would have to top that to have any realistic hope of landing Battle. This apparent auction for the defender is much like the battle for Ben McKay, though Battle is an unrestricted free agent.
Battle is a good, but not exceptional, footballer. Standing 193 centimetres, he is not quite key-position height, which arguably makes him less valuable than the 200-plus-centimetre McKay. But, like the Essendon recruit, Battle has benefited from the sheer scarcity of free agents – and tall backs in particular – in the marketplace.
Ross Lyon is a fan of Battle, who has been a cornerstone of Lyon’s trademark boa constrictor defence and counter-attack method; Lyon, understandably, would not want to give up a mid-20s core player who can be counted on to perform most weeks.
But, from what one can gather from a source familiar with the ballpark of Battle’s offer (and who can’t go on record about a player’s contract), the Hawthorn six-year offer will be close to the level that would command a first-round draft pick.
To borrow from the Canadian writer, Naomi Klein (speaking of climate change’s socio-political ramifications), this changes everything.
It therefore follows that, should Battle choose gold and brown, the Saints would potentially gain an additional top-five or six draft pick.
Provided the Hawthorn offer was sufficient for a first-round compensation pick, St Kilda’s best interests would be served by letting Battle leave and taking the pick, which would see the Saints enter the national draft with a pair of picks inside the top six or seven. On the pre-round 18 ladder, they would have picks 5 and 6.
Why let Battle go? St Kilda’s midfield is further from premiership quality than almost any team, lacking A-graders and class. Jack Steele is a decent extractor and it’s conceivable that Mattaes Phillipou will become a mid (Darcy Wilson appears to be a natural wing), but the Saints don’t have anyone of the calibre of Zak Butters/Connor Rozee/Jason Horne-Francis, nothing comparable to Patrick Cripps/Sam Walsh, or as blatantly gifted as North’s young onballers.
St Kilda president Andrew Bassat has been howling to the moon about the compromises to the draft – and the alleged undermining of his club’s access to top-end talent – wrought by northern academies and father-son recruits.
Well, here’s an opportunity for the Saints to take advantage of another questionable draft rule that has already been ruthlessly exploited by clubs such as Melbourne (see James Frawley, 2014) and North Melbourne (McKay, who North did not make an offer to, in 2023).
Just as Frawley wasn’t within cooee of pick No.3 (Angus Brayshaw) in genuine draft value and McKay wasn’t in the class of the compensation pick (No.3) North gained (or gamed), to obtain a top six or seven pick for Battle, merely a good solid footballer, would be like getting a Mercedes price for selling a reliable Ford Falcon.
The upcoming draft doesn’t contain a Harley Reid or Nick Daicos standout, according to the recruiting fraternity, but it has the advantage of being pretty even – with half a dozen or more hot midfield prospects – plus intercepting tall back Luke Trainor, who lives within a short walk of St Kilda’s home base at Linton Street(and who has potent familial bonds with North Melbourne).
The Saints, thus, stand to gain either two midfielders of some quality – potentially filling a vast hole in the long term. Or they might draft one of the midfield tyros, plus Trainor, if he’s still there.
Battle knows Jarryd Roughead, who left the Saints to return to the safer surrounds of his Hawthorn homeland, and only has to watch the Hawks over the past two months to see what Mitchell’s crew might achieve over the next five years. Hawthorn isn’t a hard sell, either, for a player who grew up in Doveton – not too far from Dingley, the imminent Hawk headquarters.
This column doesn’t know what impact Battle’s exit would have on team fabric and internal dynamics. What is clear is that Lyon has a defensive method that works, regardless, and that the midfield need is paramount.
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The only absolute imperative here is that the Saints have 100 per cent certainty that they will receive a first-round compensation for Battle; if they are getting an end-of-first-rounder – closer to his actual worth, incidentally – then they have to prioritise keeping him.
St Kilda, for all that club’s blunders and notorious own goals over the years, is showing an appreciation of the reality that a) their list isn’t up to scratch yet, and b) that they have to rely primarily on the draft – as opposed to trading in seasoned recruits – to get anywhere.
In Josh Battle, pick 39 in the 2016 national draft, they’ve unexpectedly found a serious bargaining chip, who can deliver more to the St Kilda Football Club if he leaves at the right price. Lose this Battle and you can win the war, Saints.
