Premierships can be rare, so if you polled fans and clubs asking if they would accept a year of pain after a flag it’s more than likely many would accept it.
The Western Bulldogs broke a 62-year drought in 2016, only to miss the finals completely the following two years.
Richmond ended a 37-year drought in 2017, and went on to enjoy back-to-back premierships in 2019-20, but then completely missed September action in 2021.
Geelong were one of the dominant forces of all time in 2022, losing only four games, and steamrolling Sydney in the grand final. Yet, by the end of 2023, they had slipped to 12th on the ladder, joining the Tigers as having had the second-biggest fall in AFL-VFL history.
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With five rounds remaining in the 2024 home-and-away campaign, Collingwood are the latest premiers to face the ignominy of missing the finals the next season. They began this round in 13th spot, six points outside the top eight. Victory over the Tigers on Sunday is a must if they are to remain in the finals hunt.
Just why a team so dominant one year can slip so quickly remains confounding. There are nuances to the debate, and the three recent teams each have a different story to tell.
The statistics
A Champion Data investigation has found the Bulldogs of 2017, Tigers of 2021, Cats of 2023 and the Magpies this year share common traits. All had a major dip in percentage the year after a flag, and all – in an odd coincidence – have leaked about 15 more points per game. That’s a major defensive slip. For the Cats and Magpies, their turnover game dipped, Champion Data pointing out that 18 of the past 19 premiers have ranked in the top three for scores from turnover differential.
Injuries
A deep September campaign, taxing on both mind and body, can impact the next season. Pre-season training starts a month later than teams who missed the eight. Surgery, that would have taken place in September, is delayed until October or later. Recovery is then delayed. The Cats last year were unable to field their best team, with Cam Guthrie, Mitch Duncan, Jed Bews and Rhys Stanley missing several games. Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron were hobbled at times, and when Tom Hawkins and Mark Blicavs were each hurt in round 20, the campaign was over.
“If you dig deep, there were probably a few different reasons looking into last year,” Cameron said this week when asked by this masthead to reflect on last year.
“It can be tough after being up and winning the flag, and coming back. We had a fair few guys go in [for surgery] … there were a few shoulders and knees, and you try and get yourself back to your best, but it can be tough. It’s a tough game, you get found out very quickly if you are not right. We have seen that with how close the competition is this year.”
The Bulldogs of 2016 also had injury issues, as did the Tigers of 2021.
It’s now the Magpies turn to endure a plethora of injuries, with Tom Mitchell, Brody Mihocek, Mason Cox, Jordan De Goey and Scott Pendlebury among those to have missed time. The retirement of key defender Nathan Murphy because of repeated concussions also hurt.
The Magpies have used 37 players already this season – the same number as last year.
Age shall weary them
The Tigers grew old, the average age of their premiership teams going from 25 years, 43 days to 27 years, 43 days by the end of 2020. Players were worn down, then came the retirements. The Bulldogs had an average age of 24 years, 144 days on grand final day, so overall age was not an issue for them.
The Cats, however, were the oldest VFL-AFL side ever in any game, let alone a grand final, at 28 years, 206 days. For several players, this was their Indian summer. The Magpies were in the Cats’ bracket, their average age on grand final day being 27 years, 243 days. Veterans were allowed to play on this year, but the time is nigh for tough calls if the list is to replenish. Come the 2025 season, Pendlebury will be 37, Jeremy Howe, Steele Sidebottom and Mason Cox will be 34, Jamie Elliott 33, while Brody Mihocek, Tom Mitchell, Jack Crisp and Will Hoskin-Elliott will all be 32.
Game plan
Premiership teams are typically loath to adjust a game plan that had delivered. But opponents, naturally, go to work on this. The Tigers were able to withstand this through 2018-20 with their willingness to continue to surge the ball forward at all costs, while the addition of Tom Lynch in 2019 was transformative.
“Obviously, once you win a premiership, the next year … every team sets itself really well to play against you,” Lynch said this week.
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“After 2019-20, I think we were just a bit tired after being up in the hub [in Queensland during the pandemic] for so long and spending so much time away from family, and in ’21 we didn’t really get going at all.”
The Bulldogs game plan was built around contested ball, and then flicking it clear with sharp handballs. But opponents soon negated this. The Cats took more risks in 2022, embracing speed, attacking through the corridor, but personnel issues hindered this last year. Now it’s the Magpies turn to be in the spotlight.
They set themselves apart with slick transition last year, scoring from defensive midfield chains, and dashing from half-back after intercepts. Those intercepts, particularly from skipper Darcy Moore, have largely vanished this season. The Magpies have also failed to press forward with the vigour of last season, an area they have been working on at training.
The hangover
Just what a football hangover is remains a debatable point, although the hard partying Magpies of 1991 can probably best sum it up. Were there concerning signs for the 2023 Magpies with the countrywide club celebrations over summer?
“That’s probably a natural thing to say, but it’s not how we think,” Collingwood coach Craig McRae said when asked about a premiership hangover after a 0-2 start. “We have trust in the process, and we try to get better every single day.”
That Nick Daicos asked Hawthorn great Luke Breust after last weekend’s clash at the MCG how the Hawks had managed to win three-straight flags between 2013-15 highlighted how the Magpies are searching for answers.
For the Bulldogs, Tom Liberatore’s partying in Vietnam after the ’16 flag wasn’t a promising sign. Liberatore, and other premiership players, found themselves in the VFL as the season unfolded. Jake Stringer, a match winner in ’16, then had a year to forget and was traded to Essendon.
Cameron’s recollections last year of returning to pre-season training after extended premiership celebrations were perhaps a sign of things to come. “The knee blew up, limping down the road 300 metres in, skin folds were over 120. All you think about is beer fumes and just food, that many Maccas burgers and hash browns, egg and bacon,” Cameron said at the time.
A detailed Magpies’ review come October will be interesting, particularly as the absence of football department chief Graham Wright, given most of the season off to travel, forced an internal reshuffle. Magpies president Jeff Browne denies Wright’s absence has contributed to the team’s demise.
What’s next
The Bulldogs, still with a young core in ’16, finally returned to the finals in ’19, led in the third quarter of a grand final two years later, but haven’t delivered on the promise fans had hoped. For the Tigers, there was a brief finals appearance in ’22, but, with an old and soon-to-be retiring core, it has become a pain game, with possibly the wooden spoon – and loss of Dustin Martin – to come this season.
The Cats are back in the premiership hunt, but will have to make a call on a bevy of premiership stars soon.
For the Magpies, there is still hope of a finals berth, but they will need to get moving quickly. If not, there will be a confronting club review, with list-management calls on a bevy of 30-somethings. It may also be time for a fresh game plan. But there is enough talent to be a finals contender next season.
