This in from NHL insider Frank Seravalli of the Daily Faceoff, some good vibrations on Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid’s new contracts with the Edmonton Oilers, with Seravalli suggesting that their cap hits might well be lower than expected.
Earlier this year Servalli said he expected Draisaitl might sign for $14 million per year. But when Oilers Now host Bob Stauffer suggested the combined annual cap hit of Draisaitl and McDavid might be $30 million, Seravalli said, “I think it’s going to be less than that. It’s going to be close, but I think it’s going to be on the south end of that.”
Servalli said “there’s a way better than 90 per cent” chance that McDavid and Draisaitl will sign new deals with the Edmonton Oilers.
How will the negotiation play out?
“To me it’s as simple as the Draisaitl camp led by Mike Liut at Octagon hockey, writing a number on a piece of paper and sliding it to the Oilers,” Seravalli said. “That to me is the start and finish of it. I don’t know how much negotiating you’re possibly going to do. And not for nothing the sense that I’ve gotten in talking to people close to it, the end result, the end number, may end up surprising people a little bit in terms of how reasonable it ends up being. Now it’s still going to be expensive but I don’t think Leon Draisaitl is sitting here and saying, ‘I need every last dime in Edmonton.’ I don’t think that’s how he’s looking at it.”
Both McDavid and Draisailt recognize they could get more on the open market, but every bit of extra cap space that they soak up will restrict Edmonton’s ability to sign other players crucial to winning, Seravalli said.
“Both of them know from some of the leaner that they experienced in Edmonton just how much that means.”
With the cap increasing now, the Oilers can now add more talent and that’s given them their best roster in the McDavid-Draisaitl era, Seravalli said.
My take
1. Excellent job by Servalli in explaining the issues and the stakes. It’s also fantastic to hear what I’ve long suspected, that McDavid and Draisaitl are well aware of the how what they take in their contracts will impact Edmonton’s ability to win. It’s how the game is rigged in the cap era of the NHL.
If the Oilers top two players are all about maximizing their annual salaries that will greatly limit Edmonton’s chances of winning
2. We’ve already seen Edmonton players take discounts this summer, but now comes the Draisaitl contract negotiation, currently ongoing between Draisaitl’s agents and Oilers GM Stan Bowman.
As for what a discount contract will look like for Draisaitl and McDavid, I’ll suggest that number is closer to $26 million annually than $30 million annually, at least if everyone is on the same page that winning the Stanley Cup — while also paying McDavid and Draisaitl as befits their lead dog status on the Oilers — is the top priority.
To win the Cup in the NHL’s cap era, that’s likely what it’s going to take for Draisaitl and McDavid in terms of their new contracts.
3. In the Oilers pay structure, four players — McDavid, Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard — are going to be at the top of the salary cap pyramid for years to come, each earning more than $9 million per year as of the 2025-26 season. I don’t see any way around this, given Bouchard’s growth as a defender and attacker.
If we go by NHL history, what’s the maximum amount the top four highest paid players can make in a year and still have their team win the Cup?
The most a team has paid is 47.1 per cent of the cap to its top four, the 2007-08 Detroit Red Wings paying 15.1% to Niklas Lidstrom, 13.3% to Pavel Datsyuk, 11.9% to Brian Rafalski, and 7% to Brad Stuart.
Only two other teams in the cap era, 2005-24, paid more than 45% and won the Cup, the 2006-07 Anaheim Ducks at 47.1% and the 2015-16 Pittsburgh Penguins at 45.2%.
The Florida Panthers top four were at 44.3% last year. The average of the 19 teams that have won the Cup in this era has been 40.4% spent on their top four players.
Last year Edmonton’s top four of McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse and Mattias Ekholm were at 43.4% of the cap, leaving enough room for the Oilers to bring in other strong players.
This year that same top four on the Oilers will be at 41.2%, and it’s no coincidence that this same season the Oil have the best chance to win the Cup that they’ve had in the McDavid and Draisaitl era.
4. What happens if McDavid and Draisaitl push to maximize their salaries on the Oilers, and if Bouchard does the same? It’s too late for Nurse to do so, as he cashed in for top dollar, but it’s not too late on the other major deals. This would see something like McDavid earning $16 million a year, Draisaitl $14 million and Bouchard $9.5 million. In 2025-26, when Draisaitl and Bouchard’s new deals kicked in, the top four would take 48.7% of the cap, more for a top four than any Cup winner in the cap era. In 2006-07, when McDavid’s new deal also kicked in, the top four would take 50.8% of the cap, putting any Stanley Cup ambitions in doubt.
5. What happens if Edmonton’s top players do what other players like Adam Henrique, Connor Brown, Mattias Janmark, Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner have already done, and take discounts? Edmonton’s top four would be at 47% of the cap in 2025-26, and 46.1% in 2025-26, and that percentage would drop in years to come, giving Edmonton a realistic shot at the Cup every single season of Draisaitl, McDavid and Bouchard’s new contracts.
Draisaitl and McDavid would get paid something like $13 million each per season in this scenario, with Bouchard at $9.0 million per year.
But that’s the Stanley Cup-winning scenario, that’s the one that is most likely to bring playoff success.
