Great news Green Bay is one of the hottest teams in the NFC right now.

Plenty of people continue to make arguments that Justin Fields and Matt Eberflus aren’t out of a job yet. Five games remain in the season for the Chicago Bears. While the team is 4-8, they’re 4-4 in their last eight games. They should be 5-3 if not for that painful 4th quarter collapse in Detroit. Yet that is the harsh reality facing these two. Failing to finish games is a persistent feature of their time together. Fields’ worst stats over the past two seasons have come in the 4th quarter. Eberflus’ defense ranks 26th in 4th quarter points allowed.

Yet that isn’t the primary reason why both men are more likely than not to end up unemployed once the season is over in January. This may sound narrow-minded, but it will come down to their record against the Green Bay Packers. Of all the negative things that can be said about this pairing, no cloud hangs over them more than their failure to beat the Bears’ biggest rival.

Fields is 0-5 against Green Bay, dating back to 2021. Not only that, but his 72.8 passer rating against them is by far the worst of any divisional opponent. Eberflus is 0-3 as a coach against them, and none of those games were particularly close, either. Chicago has lost by an average of 14.67 points against the Packers with him as head coach. People can talk about Detroit, Cleveland, or Atlanta. Those games mean nothing.

Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields don’t have favorable odds.

Green Bay is one of the hottest teams in the NFC right now. They’ve won four of their last five games. It will be at Lambeau Field, and they’ll likely be contending for a playoff spot. Unless the Bears manage to win the four games leading up to that encounter, they won’t have anything to play for except pride. Keep in mind this team has never won back-to-back games under Eberflus. So let’s say they go 2-2 in those four games to reach 6-10. Does anybody think the organization will keep both men around for another year if the last glimpse of them is another loss to Green Bay?

Unlikely. People can talk about Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields having to reach a certain win threshold to get another season together. The ice-cold truth is different. Little of what they do will matter if they can’t beat the Packers. It won’t matter how much better Eberflus’ defense is playing. It won’t matter how much more efficient Fields is being. None of it is good enough to win the one game that means the most to fans and, more importantly, ownership.