Michigan vs. Alabama Prediction: Four Keys That Could Decide the College Football Playoff Semifinal

It doesn’t get much better than what college football fans will experience on New Year’s Day at the Rose Bowl.

The No. 1 Michigan Wolverines and the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide will play a CFP national semifinal in Pasadena that afternoon (ESPN), on the same day No. 2 Washington and No. 3 Texas compete for the other berth in the national championship game (scheduled for Jan. 8 in Houston).

Alabama’s placement in the field was the most contentious decision in the Playoff’s 10-year history, as the selection committee defeated Florida State 13-0 to include the Tide. The selection committee’s decision to bypass an undefeated Florida State in favor of Alabama was infuriating because of what it stated about the regular season evaluation.

Our supercomputer gives Michigan a 70.5% chance of winning, despite the fact that the Wolverines are only 1.5-point favorites. Michigan and Alabama have comparable identities, and their clash is one of power vs power.Here are four crucial subplots to keep an eye on as they compete for a position in the championship game.

The majority of Michigan’s opponents have attempted to defeat the Wolverines through an underneath and intermediate passing strategy. All of them have failed. Alabama, who defeated Georgia in the SEC Championship, will almost certainly try a different strategy since the Tide play a fundamentally different style than the average Michigan opponent.

Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe enjoys throwing deep balls to skilled receivers Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond, and that combination will provide the Wolverines with a greater vertical challenge than they’re used to seeing in the Big Ten.

Jim Harbaugh’s team saw some of it when it upset Ohio State (and standout receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.) in the regular-season finale, but they’ll see a lot more of it against an Alabama attack that puts more air under the ball than most. Milroe’s 13.7 air yards per attempt was third among FBS quarterbacks with 100 or more adjusted attempts.

Milroe’s legs are just as pressing a concern for defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. The Wolverines’ Big Ten schedule did not present them with a QB who has anything remotely near Milroe’s ability as a runner. The Wolverines only faced two quarterbacks (Nebraska’s Heinrich Haarberg and Rutgers’ Gavin Wimsatt) who made the QB run an important part of their repertoire. Milroe is miles more potent than either. Team after team in the SEC tried and failed to design a QB-spy strategy that contained Milroe without opening up yawning passing lanes, and team after team failed. (Most glaringly, Auburn had a QB spy simply standing around watching when Milroe threw the touchdown pass of the season on a fourth-and-31 in the final minute to beat Auburn in

One thing working in Michigan’s favor as the Wolverines work to limit Milroe: Alabama’s offensive line has some problems. The Crimson Tide allowed a sack on about 11% of their drop backs, one of the handful of worst marks in FBS, and only 13 teams had a worse pressure-allowed rate than their 38.3% mark. Milroe, like any quarterback, was more vulnerable in obvious passing downs. Alabama converted a lousy 34.0% of its third downs, and Milroe tended to get sacked on those downs. In fact, Alabama QBs got sacked on nearly 20% of their passing-down drop backs – the worst mark out of 133 FBS teams through conference championship weekend.

Of course, the problem is only partially on the ‘Bama line: Milroe holds the ball for an eternity and takes a lot of sacks as a result. His 3.04 seconds to release were the slowest time to throw among FBS passers.

None of this suggests anything great for a team that’s about to go up against a brutal Michigan defensive front. The Wolverines do not have the kind of game-wrecking edge rushers that they enjoyed in 2021, when Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo were a singularly impossible pass-rushing duo. But they have a deep defensive line that generates pressure from the interior, solid edge defenders in Jaylen Harrell and Derrick Moore, and a bunch of linebackers and secondary players who have proved adept at flying into the backfield to cause havoc. The Wolverines, who rank fourth nationally in defensive TRACR and fifth in pressure rate, look suited to get after Milroe all afternoon. Nick Saban and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees will need an answer.

The Tide aren’t the only team with a potential matchup nightmare on the offensive line. Michigan All-American right guard Zak Zinter broke his leg in the Ohio State game, so the Wolverines will ride a different alignment against Alabama. If it’s the same as in the Big Ten Championship, they’ll shift right tackle Karsen Barnhart inside to Zinter’s guard spot, while backup Trente Jones, who looked fine against Iowa, will take Barnhart’s tackle spot. Michigan is a good developmental program for offensive linemen, the position group that’s been the responsibility of offensive coordinator and frequent interim head coach Sherrone Moore. The line blocked up a 22-yard Blake Corum touchdown run on Zinter’s first play out, and Michigan had no problem running the ball against an