With the Yankees signing minor-league contracts with lefty relievers Tim Mayza, Chasen Shreve, and Tim Hill over the past month, the team might as well post a help-wanted sign at the stadium’s E 161st Street entrance that says they are looking for left-handed relievers. Although Hill is off to a nice start with the club, the Yankees’ left-handed relievers this year have a combined 4.04 ERA and a -0.4 fWAR (with the bulk of the innings coming from Caleb Ferguson and DFA’d Victor González).
Many would also prefer to see the bullpen, which presently ranks 18th in K%, throw more strikeout-oreinted innings and leave less to chance. Tanner Scott, the closer for the Marlins, fits several of the Yankees’ requirements as they try to bolster their bullpen.
Before the 2023 season, over five seasons in Baltimore and one with Miami, Scott had below-average numbers on his career, with a 4.61 ERA (95 ERA+). Then, he had a breakout last season, with a 2.31 ERA (2.50 xERA) over 78 IP. Since the start of the 2023 season, he holds the highest fWAR among relievers and has the seventh-lowest ERA among qualified relief pitchers. He was named an All-Star for the Marlins this season, getting in on merit rather than just as the team’s mandated representative. Scott could be the lefty the Yankees have been searching for, but more importantly, he could also be the elite reliever they need.
2023 statistics: 74 games, 78 IP, 2.31 ERA, 2.17 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 33.9 k%, 7.8 bb%, 2.8 fWAR
2024 statistics: 38 games, 39 IP, 1.38 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 27.4 k%, 14.6 bb%, 0.6 fWAR
With those stats, and the Marlins 30-62, there is virtually no chance Scott is not dealt. He has many suitors. Jon Heyman wrote in late June that in addition to the Yankees, the Dodgers, Orioles, and Phillies, are among the “many’ teams that are interested. The bidding will be intense for a true-rental bullpen arm. If the circumstantial evidence is not enough, multiple MLB insiders including The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, and Miami Marlins’ reporter Craig Mish say that a trade is likely.
Scott’s arsenal is nice and simple. His four-seamer averages 96.7 mph and tops out at 99.4 mph, and he throws it 58.7 percent of the time. His fastball has impeccable results this season, with a .101 batting average against and a .116 slugging percentage against. He gets a nice ride on the pitch, with 15 percent more vertical movement compared to four-seamers of similar velocity. Here is that visual rise on a high 99.1 mph four-seamer that made Jake Meyers swing and miss this past Thursday:
His other pitch is a slider that breaks horizontally, 70 percent more than the league average compared to sliders of a similar velocity. His slider produces an excellent 41.1 percent whiff rate. Also from his recent outing, he made Chas McCormick swing at a ball way out of the zone to punch him out:
FanGraphs’ Stuff+ models, which puts a value on the physical characteristics like (but not limited to) velocity, pitch movement, location, and release point, grades his four-seamer at 151 and his slider at 133, with 100 being average. His overall Stuff+ ranks fifth among relievers in baseball with a minimum of 30 innings. His pitch characteristics undeniably match his baseball-card numbers.
We do need to remember that a reliever’s numbers can be volatile. His .180 BABIP indicates some good luck so far this season. His under-2 ERA is unlikely to hold throughout the season. His expected numbers have his ERA at 3.26 (78th percentile) and his batting average at .194 (94th percentile). A positive indicator is that he holds elite rates in preventing hard-hit contact. He is the best among all relievers with an average exit velocity of 83.6 mph against him. He is also at the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate, and groundball percentage in the 86th percentile.
The one thing that sticks out as a potential issue is his 14.6 walk rate this season. However, those walks were bunched up in March and April of this season, where he had four games within the first half month of the season that he walked multiple batters. The walk issue seems to have dissipated in the summer months. He has walked five batters over 16 innings in his June and July appearances for an 8.9 percent walk rate.
A question worth examining is how he pitches in big spots. This Marlins season, with a plethora of pitching injuries, was basically dead on arrival. It hasn’t been a pressure-cooker of a season pitching for the Marlins, although there is always high personal pressure playing at the major-league level, regardless of the team situation.
Inherited runners for relievers is an underrated stat when trying to assess the value of a relief pitcher. When a reliever is coming in with runners on base, it is typically high leverage, especially for a top bullpen arm like Scott. No, there is nothing that will stack up to the pressure of a postseason in the Bronx, but the Marlins were in a tight playoff push last year, and he delivered in big spots. He stranded 19 out of the 23 runners working as a set-up man. This season, in the closer role, he held the four runners he had inherited.
He is fairly even in platoon splits when looking at his past season and a half. With no clear edge the past two seasons, he is not a lefty-specialist, performing a tick better against right-handed batters in 2023. This season he has had a slight edge versus lefties with a .213 wOBA compared to .230 versus righties.
We would cross the bridge if we come to it down the road regarding how Scott would be deployed, but this he is one of the whales of the deadline season. Pending what the A’s decide with Mason Miller, Scott could be the best reliever on the market, and his trade price will reflect that. In a season where the urgency—or maybe at this point desperation is the better word—feels palpable, this is the year to go for The Guy, rather than finding the best market value.
