When The Athletic’s staff came together to pick who’s going to win the Stanley Cup at the start of the playoffs, not a single person chose the Carolina Hurricanes. When the field narrowed to eight teams at the conclusion of the first round, not a single person chose the Hurricanes.
And yet, there the Hurricanes were: one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup by our internal model at the start of the playoffs (tied for fifth) and the favorite at the start of the second round. That sentiment was echoed by oddsmakers, who held the Hurricanes in similar esteem at both the start of the first and second rounds.
That led to one very important question from my editor, Ian Denomme: “Why?”
It’s a question likely echoed by many readers who are probably tired of the same old story when it comes to the Corsi Canes. It seems like every year they emerge as one of the favorites to win it all before flaming out in a barrage of perimeter shots. That this year’s version is so highly regarded may feel like the most inexplicable yet, given Carolina finished 10th in the league with 99 points. Over the previous four seasons, the Hurricanes were at least a top-three team during the regular season and earned those odds. This year, not so much.
So what gives?
For starters, the Hurricanes being the favorite does not mean they are considered the best team. We had them fifth to start the playoffs and they’ve since moved up to second. That’s a result of throttling the New Jersey Devils more than expected (with the best goal differential in the opening round), Playoff Connor Hellebuyck downgrading the Winnipeg Jets, and the Tampa Bay Lightning imploding. Even second may seem too high to some (Florida is first, by the way), but the reality is that the top of the league is very close. Closer than we’ve arguably ever seen.
There was not much separating the top 10 teams on paper to start the playoffs and there is not much separating the top seven at the start of the second round (sorry, Washington). What that means is that the path to the Cup becomes a lot more important and that’s where Carolina has a big advantage over the other top teams.
The Atlantic with Toronto, Tampa Bay and Florida was a gauntlet. The Central with Winnipeg, Dallas and Colorado was a gauntlet. The Pacific with Vegas, Los Angeles and Edmonton was a gauntlet. The Metropolitan division? Not so much (sorry, Washington).
Every other top team was going to have at least one coin-flip matchup en route to the conference final. The teams locked into the 2nd vs. 3rd matchup in each division — where arguably some of the league’s best teams landed (Colorado, Dallas, Florida, Tampa Bay) — were going to have two. Carolina, on the other hand, was going to get two matchups where the Hurricanes were heavily favored (sorry, Washington). The math was on their side, as it frequently is.
